Idea:
Well anyway, let's get down to the data. I know some folks are a little upset about the firing of the Avengers Director, James Gunn. I am not here to debate whether I personally agree with the decision or not (you know how I like to save the theatrics for social media, I just can't resist those popcorn memes). BUT- I thought it would be fun to take a look at HOW MUCH he was actually worth to Disney's MCU franchise. Show me the money!!
For those who have not heard the dramatic news, James Gunn was the director of BOTH the Guardians of the Galaxy (GOTG) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Let's take a quick jump back at the previous analysis (Part 1) to grab some helpful data. The GOTG franchise so far has pulled in $1.63 billion at the box office and made over double per dollar spent. Unfortunately for this amazing series, however, James Gunn was let go by Disney in mid-2018 due to an unexpected scandal. This means that he will NOT be returning to direct Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. (But don't fret, Gunn was asked to take over the DC Suicide Squad films, and we ALL know DC could use the help.) The future of GOTG3 just got a little bit shakier, however. So let's find out how much cold, hard cash Disney is potentially risking on this decision... (Was it worth it? Let me work it. Put my thang down, flip it and reverse it.)
Data Viz:
Here is the link to the Tableau Public portfolio
Insight:
While that may already sound impressive, James Gunn also holds the second highest average return with an approximate 146.81% profit on his movies. (Joss Whedon holds the highest profit return with an average of 150.27% for the Avengers films.) James Gunn is one (1) of four (4) Marvel directors who (on average) made over double what was spent on production per movie, which is pretty astonishing considering there has been 13 directors in the Marvel franchise over the last 10 years.
When looking at what James Gunn contributed to the MCU as a whole, he accounts for 9.34% of Marvel's box office sales over the ten (10) years. With just two (2) movies, James Gunn has ranked third in box office sales, next to Joss Whedon's two films (16.68%) and the Russo Brothers' three films (22.43%). These three (3) directors ALONE account for almost 50% of MCU box office sales.
Using this simple model, we can predict that the box office sales for Guardians of the Galaxy 3 will be $954,334,000, with a budget of $167,666,000. This would make the profit $786,668,000 (82.43% profit). With all other factors remaining the same, James Gunn would have contributed an additional 4.68% to Marvel's total box office sales with GOTG3 alone. James Gunn's total contribution (all three (3) movies) would then make up a total of 14.02% of MCU box office sales.
So now we have the answer to our second question: The firing of James Gunn jeopardizes a potential revenue of 954 million dollars for Disney's Marvel franchise. Since Vol. 3 is indefinitely suspended, one could say the monetary value of losing James Gunn is almost a billion dollars. Because Gunn was fired on 'moral grounds,' Disney's core values are worth more than a billion dollars. This is more than most people would make in ten (10) lifetimes. After learning this, I can say that this must have been a very expensive and difficult decision to make.
Based on these stats, it is safe to say that James Gunn was an extremely valuable asset to the MCU. James Gunn contributed about 10% of the MCU sales and was able to generate a return (on average) of just under 150% per movie. So to answer our previous question: YES, James Gunn was a strong contributor to Marvel's success. Since we have now confirmed that James Gunn was an asset to the MCU, let's see if we can determine the possible loss they took from the letting go of James Gunn.
To find this out, we are going to use a simple linear algebra formula. Okay, now what did you learn in high school math? Start writing down the most relevant formula....just kidding! One of the great features of Tableau is that it provides some basic analysis features, including this handy-dandy mathematical formula (Y = mX + b) to find the prediction of the next film.
Tableau uses this formula to create two points using the data from the first GOTG film (first point) and the data from the second GOTG film (second point). Tableau then places a line between the points (known as the slope) that can be used to predict future profitability for the third movie. The top two points in the chart below (shown in purple) represent the box office sales for each film. The bottom two points (shown in green) represent the budget for each film. Now we can determine the potential success of the third movie using both of these metrics (box office sales and budget). Score!
We can also examine this data and see that the trend (that sloping line) shows an increase for box office sales (purple line) and a decrease on the budget (green line). From a financial view, costs going down and sales going up is ALWAYS good business. These trends help us to predict what the box office might have been for movie #3 if James Gunn directed the movie. By using these two (2) equations (the purple and green lines), and assuming Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was still released in 2020 as initially planned, we can predict (an educated guess, but not necessarily a strong one) what the box office sales and budget would have been if no other factors changed. For example, if James Gunn continued as director, the film would have progressed as planned with no unforeseen delays, no need to hire a new director, etc.
To find this out, we are going to use a simple linear algebra formula. Okay, now what did you learn in high school math? Start writing down the most relevant formula....just kidding! One of the great features of Tableau is that it provides some basic analysis features, including this handy-dandy mathematical formula (Y = mX + b) to find the prediction of the next film.
Tableau uses this formula to create two points using the data from the first GOTG film (first point) and the data from the second GOTG film (second point). Tableau then places a line between the points (known as the slope) that can be used to predict future profitability for the third movie. The top two points in the chart below (shown in purple) represent the box office sales for each film. The bottom two points (shown in green) represent the budget for each film. Now we can determine the potential success of the third movie using both of these metrics (box office sales and budget). Score!
We can also examine this data and see that the trend (that sloping line) shows an increase for box office sales (purple line) and a decrease on the budget (green line). From a financial view, costs going down and sales going up is ALWAYS good business. These trends help us to predict what the box office might have been for movie #3 if James Gunn directed the movie. By using these two (2) equations (the purple and green lines), and assuming Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was still released in 2020 as initially planned, we can predict (an educated guess, but not necessarily a strong one) what the box office sales and budget would have been if no other factors changed. For example, if James Gunn continued as director, the film would have progressed as planned with no unforeseen delays, no need to hire a new director, etc.
These formulas, then, provide a monetary value of James Gunn as GOTG3 director, and from that, we can infer the financial consequences of his removal. For math nerds who want to dig deeper into what determines those awesome green and purple points on the graph, let's break this down into numbers:
- (Y = mX + b)
- Box Office Revenues = 3.01667e+07*Year of Release date + -5.99824e+10
- Budget of Movie = -1.07667e+07*Year of Release date + 2.19164e+10
We have set values for X and Y for the first two movies. Tableau then calculates the values of b and m. Using those values for each equation (box office revenues and budget), we can then solve each equation (finding the value for Y) for the third movie using our new values for b and m, and the release date of 2020 for X. (Thanks, Tableau!)
Using this simple model, we can predict that the box office sales for Guardians of the Galaxy 3 will be $954,334,000, with a budget of $167,666,000. This would make the profit $786,668,000 (82.43% profit). With all other factors remaining the same, James Gunn would have contributed an additional 4.68% to Marvel's total box office sales with GOTG3 alone. James Gunn's total contribution (all three (3) movies) would then make up a total of 14.02% of MCU box office sales.
So now we have the answer to our second question: The firing of James Gunn jeopardizes a potential revenue of 954 million dollars for Disney's Marvel franchise. Since Vol. 3 is indefinitely suspended, one could say the monetary value of losing James Gunn is almost a billion dollars. Because Gunn was fired on 'moral grounds,' Disney's core values are worth more than a billion dollars. This is more than most people would make in ten (10) lifetimes. After learning this, I can say that this must have been a very expensive and difficult decision to make.
Tools:
- Tableau Public
- Microsoft Excel
Data:
Data Cleaning:
The cleaning fo this data set was completed in Microsoft Excel. Since the data was fairly simple, it was easier to do a quick clean in a spreadsheet and took about 20 minutes to complete. A few attributes also needed to be cleaned up for the import in Tableau. The financial information needed to be replaced with an integer to give it a digital value. This was completed by changing the text and number into the actual dollar amount. I also formatted the directors' names into a single cell. The data also includes other names of people involved in the film, which will be cleaned up during a later post. The last part of the data clean-up was removing minutes form the 'run time' attribute. This helped to change the field to an integer (and not a string) format.
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